Analysis by Team – A Tool for Mitigating Mistakes in Intelligence Analysis
Purpose:
In this paper, we will examine various causes of error in intelligence analysis and then propose a solution to combat or mitigate them.
Design/Methods/Approach:
We reviewed the literature of relevant primary and secondary sources on mistakes in intelligence analysis and efforts to mitigate them. Additionally, we use the synthesis method to propose a solution.
Findings:
Analysis by team was recognized as a valuable tool in mitigating mistakes in intelligence analysis. Intelligence analysis is a cognitively intense activity, subjected to cognitive biases and analytical mistakes. Mistakes and biases can be further exacerbated by the pressures on intelligence analysts stemming from uncertainty, denial and deceptions, secrecy and the need for timeliness. Because of these limitations and challenges, individuals often struggle to recognize their own mistakes, but are still able to identify them in other people. As a solution to this, analysis by team is proposed. However, working in groups can lead to risks such as groupthink and polarization. For that reason, analytical groups have to be properly selected, structured and managed.
Research Limitations / Implications:
Besides the secret nature and, therefore, limited access to information, there is also limited empirical research on the efficacy of the methods and techniques used by intelligence analysts.
Practical Implications:
In the paper, we present a practical solution for mitigating mistakes by intelligence analysis, which can be used by professionals from other fields of national security as well as in the business environment.
Originality/Value:
This paper seeks to present the most viable tool to combat or mitigate mistakes in analytical or investigative work. Analytical findings and conclusions are meant for national security and law enforcement professionals and decision makers. More effective and rigorous analysis can therefore support better decision making.
UDC: 351.746.1
Keywords: intelligence, intelligence analysis, analytical mistakes, cognitive biases